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Video explaining abrupt climate change_CDF2022

State-of-the-art climate models often fail to capture non-linear, abrupt shifts in the climate system, even though such changes are observed in paleoclimate records and could occur in the future. This is likely because traditional, process-based models are built for numerical stability, and thus are not suitable for capturing rapid climate events (large amplitude – short time scale). To have confidence in both paleoclimate reconstructions and future projections, modellers and paleoclimate scientists need new tools to identify and incorporate the potential for sudden transitions. Dynamical systems theory offers a complementary alternative approach to traditional models, dealing with perturbations through simplified numerical schemes which are better suited for non-linear processes and can robustly identify and characterise tipping points.

Here we test the application of dynamical systems theory to identify early warning signals (EWS) of tipping points in paleoclimate datasets. Tipping points and non-linear state transitions are documented in many paleoclimate proxy records, including those derived from ice and marine sediment cores. We use the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) as an example of a bi-modal system to illustrate one element or process that is capable of tipping which can have cascading consequences throughout the climate system. We first identify and characterise paleoclimate records that show signals of rapid change in the AMOC or other connected climate elements. We then test a simple 1D dynamical systems model on proxy records that exhibit critical transitions to evaluate the potential for using EWS to identify tipping points before they occur.

We also explore how abrupt change in the earth system can be communicated more effectively to highlight the potential for rapid changes. This is critical in the current context of continued increase in greenhouse gases emissions and the need to act urgently to mitigate catastrophic consequences of climate change.


DOI: 10.21420/4ST0-4G62


Cite video as:

GNS Science. 2022. Video explaining abrupt climate change_CDF2022. Lower Hutt (NZ): GNS Science. https://doi.org/10.21420/4ST0-4G6 2

Simple

Date (Creation)
2022-09-23T10:00:00
Purpose

This is a short introduction to the climate system as a non-linear system, feedbacks, and the potential impacts of an Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) collapse. This was produced as part of a CDF 2022 - Abrupt Change led by Liz Keller and has an associated internal report. Keller, ED., Krapp, M., Ulayottil Venugopal, A., Grant, GR., 2022. Identifying and communicating abrupt change: CDF project report. Lower Hutt (NZ): GNS Science. 33 p. Internal Report 2022/10.

Status
Completed
Point of contact
Organisation name Individual name Electronic mail address Role

GNS Science

G.grant@gns.cri.nz

Point of contact

GNS Science

Georgia Grant

G.grant@gns.cri.nz

Author
Maintenance and update frequency
Not planned
Keywords
  • climate change, tipping points, paleoclimate, early warning signals

Classification
Unclassified
Use constraints
Intellectual property rights
Language
English
Begin date
2021-09-23
End date
2022-09-23
Distribution format
Name Version

CDF_abrupt change_AMOC

1

OnLine resource
Protocol Linkage Name

WWW:LINK-1.0-http--related

https://web.microsoftstream.com/video/d0d2cd87-d73e-4bcc-ad4a-896b133a2eca

CDF_abrupt change_AMOC

Metadata

File identifier
ffcb7197-f02c-4197-8ad0-987d81060c66 XML
Metadata language
English
Character set
UTF8
Hierarchy level
Non geographic dataset
Hierarchy level name

video

Date stamp
2022-10-19T16:27:36
Metadata standard name

ISO 19115:2003/19139

Metadata standard version

1.0

Metadata author
Organisation name Individual name Electronic mail address Role

GNS Science

datamanagement@gns.cri.nz

Point of contact
 
 

Overviews

Spatial extent

Keywords


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