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  • The National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for New Zealand provides probabilistic estimates of the strength of earthquake shaking that can be expected according to a user-defined time period and probability, e.g. the peak ground acceleration (PGA) that has a 10% chance of happening in any 50 year time window. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) uses the location, recurrence behaviour, and predicted ground motions of earthquake sources to estimate the hazard at a site, or across a grid of sites as shown in the map below for Class C (shallow soil) site conditions. The NSHM is an algorithm that draws upon several component models to calculate its results. It uses a fault model that combines New Zealand’s active fault database, which includes 536 fault sources, and the 170 year historical earthquake catalogue. The background model is comprised of a multi-layered background seismicity grid DOI: Site as: GNS Science. (2020). National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for New Zealand. GNS Science.